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P Pitch Archive Stock pitches across investing competitions
← Winter 2021

RealPage, Inc.

RP pitch long Nathan Shapiro, Levente Merczel, Kyle Heck, Kirk Mahoney, Vineet Ahuja

Thesis

RealPage is positioned to gain significant market share in the underpenetrated property management market, supported by a strong M&A strategy that enhances its service offerings. The company's high retention rates and competitive moats, including a sticky ERP system and strong data analytics capabilities, further bolster its growth potential. With a 1-year price target of $85, this reflects a 41% upside and a 15% IRR over a 4-year investment horizon.

Did it work?

failed confidence: high

The long thesis called for a 1-year price target of $85 (41% upside) and a 15% IRR over a 4-year horizon, but 69 months later — well past the full stated horizon — the stock is down 97.1%. This is a catastrophic loss in the opposite direction of the thesis, decisively invalidating the market-share growth and moat narrative. With the entire investment horizon elapsed and the return overwhelmingly negative, the pitch clearly failed.