CoStar Group, Inc.
Thesis
The thesis is based on CoStar's strong market position and growth potential in the commercial real estate data and analytics sector. The company is expected to continue expanding its services and customer base, which should drive revenue growth and enhance shareholder value.
Did it work?
The long thesis predicted that CoStar's market position and expansion would drive revenue growth and enhance shareholder value, but the stock declined 64.7% over the 64 months since the pitch — a severe loss of shareholder value over a period well beyond any typical investment horizon. Regardless of whether operational growth occurred, the core promise of value creation was decisively not realized. The magnitude and duration of the drawdown leave little ambiguity that the thesis failed to play out.