DoorDash, Inc.
Thesis
We recommend a BUY for DoorDash, an on-demand delivery business that we believe is positioned to outperform expectations due to durable growth in US Restaurants, improving profitability in New Verticals and International, and underappreciated margin expansion potential from operating leverage. Our 3-year price target of $318 represents 80% upside and a 22% IRR, based on 10x EV/EBITDA on our 2030 EBITDA estimates.
Did it work?
The pitch targets 80% upside ($318) over a 3-year horizon, but only 5 months have elapsed with the stock up +31.6%. While the move is directionally consistent with the long thesis and ahead of the implied 22% IRR pace, it remains well short of the stated target, and there is no evidence yet that the specific fundamental drivers (New Verticals/International profitability, operating leverage) have decisively played out. With well under half the stated horizon elapsed, this strong interim gain is not yet a confirmable result.