PayPal Holdings, Inc.
PYPL
pitch
long
Jennifer Ma ‘25, Takuro Fujii ‘25, Mario Stefanidis, CFA ‘25
Thesis
PayPal is positioned for growth due to its scalable business model and recent management changes that support valuation. The new CEO, Alex Chriss, aims to make PayPal leaner and more cost-efficient, with significant share buybacks planned. The company is expected to achieve a modest revenue CAGR of 8% and an adjusted EPS CAGR of 13% through 2028, with an IRR of 15%.
Did it work?
failed
confidence: high
The long thesis for PayPal anticipated growth driven by management changes and financial metrics, but the stock has declined by 9.8% over 35 months, which contradicts the expected upward trajectory. Given that the time elapsed is well beyond the typical noise period and the stock has not performed as projected, the thesis has failed.
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