Planet Fitness, Inc.
Thesis
Planet Fitness is positioned for significant growth with a target of 3,000 stores by 2025, driven by its strong value proposition and resilience during economic downturns. The company has a unique opportunity to expand both nationally and internationally, and its unit economics are attractive even without leverage. The recommendation is to go long on PLNT with a 3-year target price of $102, reflecting an IRR of 18%.
Did it work?
The long thesis targeted $102 (18% IRR) over 3 years, but 19 months in — just over half the stated horizon — PLNT is down 50%, moving sharply against the recommended direction. To still reach the target, the stock would need to roughly quadruple in the remaining 17 months, which decisively breaks the thesis's return math. The pitch's core claims of resilience and steady unit-economics-driven compounding have been overwhelmed by a severe drawdown rather than modest interim noise.