Bombardier Inc.
Thesis
The investment in Bombardier was driven by the anticipation of a catalyst from the sale of its trains business to Alstom, which would reduce debt and pension obligations while providing a cash infusion. This strategic move was expected to transform Bombardier into a pure-play private aviation business, enhancing its value significantly.
Did it work?
The thesis's central catalyst clearly played out: Bombardier completed the sale of its trains business to Alstom (closed January 2021), using the proceeds to cut debt and pension obligations and transforming into a pure-play business aviation company, exactly as pitched. The stock's direction since the pitch is strongly positive, consistent with the long call. However, the reported +120,414.8% return is implausibly large and almost certainly a data artifact, and the time elapsed is unknown, so confidence is tempered despite the thesis being decisively confirmed.