NVIDIA Corporation
Thesis
Nvidia has been a large position in the fund because I believe that AI and machine learning are going to be meaningful in terms of computational technology and computer science. Nvidia has the lead on the silicon aspect of it, and a durable one at that, which positions it well for continued success.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: low
The thesis rested on two claims: AI/ML would become meaningful to computing, and Nvidia held a durable silicon lead. Both have clearly played out — Nvidia became the dominant supplier of AI accelerators and its data center business grew explosively, validating the 'durable lead' and 'continued success' framing. However, with no price performance data and no stated time horizon, the return itself cannot be quantified, so confidence is low.