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Penumbra, Inc.

PEN position long Muddy Waters Capital

Thesis

Penumbra was involved in activism that successfully removed a dangerous medical device from the market, showcasing the importance of activism in the healthcare sector. Despite this, some investors were willing to overlook this aspect as it became a smaller part of the business.

Did it work?

inconclusive confidence: low

The pitch is a long on Penumbra, but it contains no stated price target, horizon, or forward-looking catalyst — the activism event (successful removal of a dangerous device from the market) is described as having already occurred at the time of the pitch. With no price performance data available and no post-pitch thesis event to verify, there is no basis to judge whether the long thesis played out. The outcome remains undetermined.