Vistry Group plc
Thesis
Vistry is transitioning to a pure-play Partnerships business, which is faster-growing, less-cyclical, and earns higher returns on capital than traditional housebuilding. The company is currently undervalued, trading at less than 4x medium-term EBIT, with a potential upside to £50/share or more as it executes its strategy and benefits from a structural housing shortage in the UK.
Did it work?
The long thesis anticipated upside to £50/share based on Vistry's Partnerships transition being faster-growing, less-cyclical, and higher-return, but the stock instead collapsed 70.6% over 28 months. A drawdown of this magnitude decisively invalidates the core claims — the market's repricing indicates the Partnerships model did not deliver the expected stability or returns, and the 'undervalued at <4x EBIT' premise proved wrong. With over two years elapsed and the price moving violently against the stated direction, this is a clear failure rather than interim noise.