First American Financial Corporation
Thesis
The core title insurance operation is undervalued due to a decline in home sales, but earnings power is conservatively estimated at $155 million, suggesting significant upside. The market is valuing the Information Services segment too low, indicating a margin of safety of 20% to 70%.
Did it work?
No price performance or elapsed time data is available, so the claimed 20%-70% margin of safety and the upside from ~$155 million earnings power cannot be verified against market outcomes. The thesis rests on a valuation gap closing in the title insurance and Information Services segments, but there is no evidence of whether that repricing or the estimated earnings power materialized. Without either price data or confirmation of the thesis's underlying events, no verdict on success or failure is possible.