RB Global, Inc.
Thesis
We recommend a BUY for RB Global (NYSE: RBA) with a base-case price target of $149, implying a 16% IRR over a three-year horizon. RB Global operates the largest auction platform for used heavy equipment and has expanded into the U.S. salvage car auction market through its acquisition of IAA. With strong execution from a seasoned management team and meaningful synergy potential, we believe RBA is well-positioned to deliver steady growth and margin improvement.
Did it work?
The long thesis is directionally intact — RBA is up +17.8% since the pitch — but with 28 of the stated 36 months elapsed (~78% of the horizon), the return annualizes to roughly 7%, well short of the 16% IRR needed to reach the $149 target (which implied ~55%+ cumulative appreciation from an entry near the mid-$90s). The stock has not broken the thesis, as the business drivers (IAA integration, synergy capture) have not been decisively invalidated, but performance is tracking materially below the base-case trajectory. Positive but underwhelming versus the stated target warrants a partial verdict.