Dentsply Sirona Inc.
Thesis
Dentsply is the leading provider of consumable and other products to dentists, benefiting from positive demographic trends that should fuel increased demand. Currently trading at $26, under 14x this year’s EPS, while our intrinsic value estimate is north of $40.
Did it work?
The long thesis projected Dentsply re-rating toward an intrinsic value above $40 from a $26 entry, but the stock instead fell 57.2% over 28 months to roughly $11 — moving decisively in the opposite direction of the thesis. A decline of this magnitude over more than two years is far beyond normal noise for a value-driven long and indicates the underlying assumptions (steady demographic-driven demand supporting earnings and valuation) have been invalidated rather than merely delayed. The thesis is decisively broken regardless of any remaining time horizon.