CarMax, Inc.
Thesis
Adam Lindsay advocated for a long position in CarMax, citing its strong competitive position in the used car market and potential for expansion. He demonstrated a deep understanding of the business, particularly regarding its financing operations and receivables.
Did it work?
The pitch was a long thesis premised on CarMax's strong competitive position and expansion potential, but the stock has declined 10.6% over the 28 months since the pitch — a negative absolute return that directly contradicts the long direction. While the thesis was qualitative and did not specify a horizon or catalysts, more than two years is a sufficient window for a general long thesis to show directional progress, and none is evident. The modest magnitude of the decline and the absence of stated, checkable milestones keep this from being a high-confidence call.