Avery Dennison Corp.
Thesis
Grant Bowman presented a short recommendation on Avery Dennison Corp. during the Moon Lee Prize competition, suggesting that the stock is overvalued based on his analysis of the company's fundamentals and market position.
Did it work?
failed
confidence: high
The short thesis on Avery Dennison decisively failed. Over the 200 months (~16.7 years) since the pitch, the position returned -372.5%, which for a short implies the stock appreciated roughly 4-5x — the exact opposite of the predicted decline from overvaluation. With nearly two decades elapsed, far exceeding any reasonable evaluation horizon, the thesis has been conclusively invalidated by the market.