TotalEnergies SE
Thesis
Total was purchased by Tweedy, Browne as part of their strategy to invest in oil stocks when prices were low, indicating a belief in the company's resilience and potential for recovery.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: high
The long thesis called for recovery in Total from depressed oil-price levels, and over the ~18 years since the pitch the stock gained +102.9%, more than doubling and confirming the direction of the call. The annualized price return (~4%) is modest, though Total's substantial dividends would meaningfully augment total shareholder return. With nearly two decades elapsed — far beyond any plausible stated horizon — and the recovery dynamic the thesis hinged on having clearly occurred, the pitch is judged to have worked.