ConocoPhillips
Thesis
ConocoPhillips was purchased by Tweedy, Browne as oil prices fell, indicating a belief in the company's long-term value and recovery potential in the energy sector.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: high
The long thesis rested on ConocoPhillips' long-term value and recovery potential after oil prices fell. With ~18 years elapsed—far beyond any plausible horizon for this value/recovery thesis—the stock delivered +248.3% in price appreciation (before dividends), strongly confirming the anticipated recovery. The direction and magnitude of the return align squarely with the long thesis.