Horsehead Holding Corp.
Thesis
ZINC is the lowest cost producer of specialty zinc and zinc-based products, benefiting from a unique refining process that allows them to acquire feedstock at a negative cost. Despite recent declines in zinc prices, the long-term outlook is positive due to the closure of competing facilities and ZINC's strong cash position, which constitutes 70% of its market cap. The stock is currently trading at approximately 40% of book value, presenting a significant upside opportunity.
Did it work?
The long thesis decisively played out: ZINC returned +496.6% (~10-11% annualized) over the 210 months since the pitch, a nearly 6x gain that strongly validates the bullish direction. The core thesis elements — deep value at ~40% of book value, a cash position covering 70% of market cap, and a favorable long-term zinc supply outlook from competitor closures — were consistent with a substantial re-rating over this long horizon. Given the magnitude of the return and the very long elapsed period, the verdict is clear.