Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc.
Thesis
We bought Pacific Biosciences at a low market cap, believing in its long-term potential in the genomic sequencing space, despite its current cash burn and competitive risks.
Did it work?
failed
confidence: high
The long thesis rested on PacBio's long-term potential outweighing its cash burn and competitive risks, but the stock returned -100% over 32 months, a total loss of capital. A complete wipeout decisively invalidates the thesis regardless of the stated long-term horizon, as the very risks the pitch acknowledged (cash burn, competition) appear to have destroyed the investment. There is no partial credit for direction here — the position went to zero.