The Williams Companies, Inc.
Thesis
The Williams Companies (WMB) is an integrated natural gas energy company that is undervalued due to low natural gas prices and skepticism about a potential business split. The new leadership is expected to unlock value by separating the exploration & production (E&P) business from the midstream assets, which will allow each business to attract the right investors. The current share price of $27 does not reflect the potential upside of $36 to $43 per share, representing a 35% to 60% upside.
Did it work?
The long thesis called for WMB to rise from $27 to $36-$43 (35-60% upside) as new leadership unlocked value through a business separation. Over the ~15.6 years since the pitch, the stock returned +173.1% (to roughly $74), decisively exceeding even the high end of the stated target. With the full horizon long elapsed and the return far above the thesis's own upside range, the pitch clearly worked.