NewMarket Corporation
Thesis
NewMarket is a low growth, mature business with significant barriers to entry and a strong competitive position. The company has shown improved earnings potential, generating approximately $12 per share annually, and has engaged in share buybacks, which enhances shareholder value.
Did it work?
The long thesis on NewMarket — a mature business with strong barriers to entry, improving earnings (~$12/share), and value-enhancing buybacks — was decisively validated by a +5997.9% price gain, roughly a 60x return. Even though the exact time elapsed is unknown, a return of this magnitude overwhelmingly confirms the thesis that the company's competitive position and capital returns would create substantial shareholder value. There is no scenario where such performance is inconsistent with the stated long direction.