Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.
Thesis
The sum of the parts analysis suggests that MSG is undervalued, with a total SOTP value of $3,793 per share compared to the current price of $48.49. The potential for significant annual returns is bolstered by the Dolan family's shareholder-friendly actions and the expected resolution of the NBA lockout, which could enhance profitability.
Did it work?
The long thesis called MSG deeply undervalued on a sum-of-the-parts basis, and the stock delivered a +702.9% return — roughly a 7x gain squarely in the stated direction. The thesis's supporting catalysts also materialized: the NBA lockout was resolved and the Dolan family pursued value-unlocking actions (notably the spin-offs of MSG Networks and later MSG Entertainment), consistent with the promised shareholder-friendly behavior. While the full $3,793 SOTP target was not reached, the magnitude and direction of the return decisively validate the undervaluation call.