Fortune Brands
Thesis
The distilled business of Fortune Brands is expected to be valued between $80-$85 due to its strong cash flows and potential for growth, particularly in the bourbon category, which is a $6 billion market. The company is likely to be taken over, which adds to its attractiveness as an investment.
Did it work?
The thesis called for Fortune Brands' distilled business (subsequently spun off as Beam Inc.) to be worth $80–$85 per share with a takeover likely. Both core thesis events materialized: Beam was acquired by Suntory in 2014 for $83.50 per share in cash, squarely within the stated valuation range, with the bourbon growth story a key driver of the deal. The decisive confirmation of the takeover and valuation supports a 'worked' verdict, though the lack of provided price data and unknown pitch timing limit certainty.