Sallie Mae
Thesis
Sallie Mae has a strong asset quality with 81% of loans guaranteed by the U.S. government. The stock is trading at $13, which is half of its market multiple, and the company is expected to earn $1.80 this year, with a target price of $20 per share.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: high
The long thesis called for Sallie Mae to re-rate from $13 toward a $20 target (~54% upside) based on undervaluation relative to earnings power ($1.80 EPS expected). The stock returned +103.2%, roughly doubling and decisively exceeding the stated $20 price target. Since the thesis's core claim — that the shares were worth materially more than $13 — has been decisively confirmed regardless of elapsed time, the verdict is 'worked' with high confidence.