Applied Materials
Thesis
Applied Materials is the world's leading producer of chip manufacturing equipment, trading near $11 and selling at around 10x earnings, with a strong financial position.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: high
The long thesis on Applied Materials at ~$11 and ~10x earnings played out spectacularly: the stock returned +4097% (roughly a 41x move), an outcome so large it decisively confirms the thesis regardless of the unknown elapsed time. The thesis's core claims — market leadership in chip equipment, a cheap valuation, and a strong balance sheet — were validated by an enormous re-rating and long-term value creation. There is no scenario in which a 41x gain is interim noise for a long pitch.