Post Holdings, Inc.
Thesis
Post Holdings is positioned for significant growth due to its strong management team led by Bill Stiritz, who has a proven track record of delivering shareholder value through strategic acquisitions and operational improvements. The company is expected to achieve a target price of $105, representing a 90% upside over three years, driven by its focus on expanding its product offerings and improving efficiencies in its operations.
Did it work?
The long thesis was directionally correct — Post returned +55.7% — but the pitch called for a $105 target (~90% upside) within three years, and 151 months later the stock has still delivered only about 55.7% cumulative gain (roughly 3.6% annualized). The magnitude and timing of the anticipated re-rating never materialized, even though the full stated horizon has long elapsed and the company did create shareholder value. Positive but well short of the stated target over a far longer period makes this a partial success rather than a worked thesis.