XPO Logistics, Inc.
Thesis
XPO is positioned to capitalize on a large and growing market in third-party logistics with significant acquisition opportunities. The company has a strong management team led by CEO Brad Jacobs, who has a proven track record of successful roll-ups in the industry. With a target of reaching $5 billion in revenues and $300 million in EBITDA by 2017, the stock is projected to reach a target price of $49, representing an 87% total return.
Did it work?
The long thesis on XPO has decisively played out: the stock returned +626.3% over the ~12.6 years since the pitch, far exceeding the stated 87% total return target. The thesis's core dynamics — aggressive roll-up growth in third-party logistics under Brad Jacobs — materialized, with XPO growing well beyond the $5 billion revenue goal and becoming a major logistics player. Given the full horizon has long elapsed and the return vastly exceeded the target, this is a clear success.