American International Group, Inc.
Thesis
We had the thesis that over five years the stock would be at least a triple because we were investing at half of stated tangible book value, investment income was below normal due to artificially depressed bond yields, and the company was buying back significant amounts of stock.
Did it work?
The pitch is a five-year thesis targeting at least a triple, but no price performance is available and the time elapsed is unknown, so the return outcome cannot be assessed. The fundamental drivers — a 50% discount to tangible book value, depressed bond yields normalizing, and heavy buybacks — may or may not have played out, but there is no evidence confirming or refuting them. With neither the horizon nor the catalysts verifiable, no verdict on success or failure is possible.